Forest Products Industry

As demand grows for lower-carbon construction, transparent supply chains and robust sustainability reporting, organisations are increasingly looking for credible ways to demonstrate responsible sourcing. Source: Timberbiz The new PEFC Project Sourcing standard provides an independent, third-party certification framework that enables organisations to demonstrate that forest and tree-based materials used within construction and infrastructure projects have been responsibly sourced and are supported by verifiable evidence. To explore the opportunities presented by the new standard, PEFC recently brought together experts from Australia, Japan, Singapore, and the UK to share practical insights and real-world examples. The webinar provided a practical introduction to the new PEFC Project Sourcing standard, explaining how it supports responsible sourcing, material traceability and sustainability reporting while showcasing certified projects from around the world. The construction sector is under increasing pressure to reduce carbon emissions, improve material traceability and meet the requirements of green building rating systems and sustainability reporting frameworks. Jonathan Tibbits, sustainability consultant and lead author of the new PEFC Project Sourcing standard, explained that the revised requirements were developed specifically to meet these evolving needs. “At its core, the move to a standalone standard was intended to make project certification clearer, more consistent and more practical.” The new standard introduces several important developments, including applicant projects, multi-project certification and greater flexibility for organisations managing multiple developments. It also uses terminology and requirements designed specifically for construction projects while aligning with leading green building rating systems around the world. Mr Tibbits explained that these changes make certification more accessible while maintaining the robust, independent assurance that organisations increasingly need to support responsible sourcing claims. Kevin Hill, Managing Director of Nautilus Innovation, demonstrated how project certification creates value throughout the construction process, drawing on examples from hospitality developments across Asia and the Middle East. As organisations seek to communicate the environmental benefits of timber construction, Mr Hill emphasised that evidence has become just as important as ambition. “People don’t believe what you tell them anymore. They want to see evidence.” He described PEFC Project Sourcing certification as providing the trusted evidence trail needed to support sustainability claims, carbon reporting and responsible sourcing communications. Mr Hill also stressed the importance of considering certification from the outset of a project. “Project certification needs to be committed before, not after, a project.” The webinar also highlighted how project certification is already supporting construction projects in different markets. Makiko Horio, Deputy Secretary General of PEFC Japan (SGEC/PEFC Japan), shared how Japan has become the world’s leading market for PEFC Project Sourcing certification, with 33 certified projects ranging from schools and public buildings to commercial developments and the Austrian Pavilion at Expo 2025 Osaka. She explained that while the motivations vary between public and private sectors, responsible sourcing is becoming increasingly important across both. “Project certification is used across both private and public sectors, with a strong focus on locally sourced certified timber.” John Kirkby, Executive Director of PEFC UK, outlined how growing use of mass timber construction and increasing availability of PEFC-certified materials are creating new opportunities for project certification. Drawing on experience from projects including the London Olympic Village, HMS Victory and Timber Square in London, John explained how feedback from developers, contractors and certification bodies helped shape the revised standard. “We’ve listened to the users and hopefully have provided some real practical solutions.” The revised standard includes new mechanisms that make certification more practical, including continuous multi-project certification and improved trademark provisions that allow project owners to continue communicating their certified status after construction has been completed.” The webinar can be view at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mREs60z7y1k

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The UK Government has announced plans to launch a public consultation aimed at strengthening the country’s timber regulations. The initiative was confirmed in a statement issued by the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and is expected to begin later this year. Source: Timberbiz The proposed consultation follows extensive discussions over the future of timber regulation in the UK. It also comes ahead of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which is scheduled to come into force at the end of 2026. The consultation is intended to ensure that the UK maintains an effective and practical regulatory framework while supporting sustainable forestry and responsible sourcing practices. Under the proposed changes, businesses operating in Great Britain with an annual turnover exceeding £1 million and using forest commodities or wood products would be required to undertake due diligence. The purpose would be to verify that timber and forest-based products have been produced in accordance with relevant local legislation in their country of origin. The proposal represents a significant step towards strengthening existing legal requirements for timber supply chains. Greater emphasis would be placed on responsible sourcing and legal compliance throughout the procurement process. The consultation has been welcomed by Timber Development UK (TDUK), which has consistently advocated stronger measures to combat global deforestation and forest degradation while maintaining practical implementation for the timber sector. David Hopkins, Chief Executive Officer of TDUK, said the organisation strongly supports the objective of modernising UK timber legislation to address global environmental challenges. According to Hopkins, aligning UK standards with evolving international regulatory frameworks, including the EUDR and recent amendments to the United States Lacey Act, would provide long-term benefits for the domestic timber industry. He explained that greater alignment with international requirements would assist UK businesses involved in global trade while also supporting the wider adoption of sustainable forest management practices across producing countries. Although TDUK supports stronger regulation, the organisation believes the UK should avoid directly replicating the European Union’s legislative framework without modification. Darren Mayes, Sustainability and Supply Chain Compliance Manager at TDUK, emphasised that the EUDR should not simply be transferred into UK legislation without considering domestic market conditions and international trading relationships. He noted that several timber-producing countries are already encountering challenges in complying with the EU regulation. According to Mayes, these implementation difficulties have created friction between producer nations and European markets. He warned that excessive regulatory complexity could discourage producing countries from continuing investment in improving forestry practices and strengthening supply chain governance. Instead, TDUK believes the UK has an opportunity to develop a balanced regulatory model that reflects international best practice while remaining practical for businesses. Mayes suggested that the UK could build on its established leadership in responsible timber sourcing by creating a framework that connects the approaches adopted by the European Union, the United States and timber-producing nations already working to strengthen their forestry legislation. The consultation is also expected to address the regulatory position of Northern Ireland. Under existing post-Brexit arrangements, the EU Deforestation Regulation will apply to businesses operating in Northern Ireland. As a result, companies importing timber products from Great Britain into Northern Ireland will need to comply with the European requirements. This creates additional compliance obligations for businesses trading across the UK internal market. The implications for supply chains are expected to be considered carefully during the consultation process. Hopkins highlighted the work already undertaken by TDUK and its members since Brexit to establish responsible sourcing systems designed specifically for the UK market. He stated that considerable effort has been invested in developing reliable and transparent supply chains that support sustainable timber procurement. Maintaining these achievements remains a priority for the organisation. Hopkins also stressed the wider environmental importance of sustainably sourced timber. He said responsibly managed wood products remain one of the most effective materials available to support climate change mitigation. However, these environmental benefits can only be fully realised through continued collaboration with international supply chain partners and forest-producing countries. TDUK has therefore encouraged the Government to ensure that the forthcoming regulatory framework remains practical, proportionate and achievable for businesses of varying sizes. The organisation also believes that the interests of international trading partners should be considered throughout the consultation process. Industry stakeholders are expected to participate actively as proposals are developed. Their experience will help inform regulations that strengthen legal compliance without creating unnecessary barriers to trade. The consultation follows more than two years of industry discussions, technical workshops and ongoing developments surrounding implementation of the EUDR. For many businesses across the UK timber sector, the Government’s announcement provides greater regulatory certainty and demonstrates continued commitment to strengthening responsible sourcing policies. The planned consultation is also viewed as an opportunity to ensure that the UK keeps pace with evolving international timber regulations while maintaining competitive and sustainable supply chains. As global expectations surrounding legal timber sourcing continue to increase, the forthcoming consultation is expected to play an important role in shaping the future direction of the UK timber industry and reinforcing confidence in sustainable forest product markets.

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After more than 63 years of family ownership, one of Australia’s respected timber businesses is preparing to begin a new chapter. Source: NTHA The Tilling family announced the sale of the Tilling Group to Claymark Australia, with the acquisition to be completed on 31 July 2026. While ownership is changing, the family views the transition as a way of continuing the legacy established by founders Norm and Judy Tilling and supporting the future of the business. For Tilling SmartFrame Managing Director Glenn Tilling, the announcement marks a significant milestone in a journey that began more than six decades ago. “Since its beginnings in 1963, the Tilling Group has had many significant landmark events, and today’s announcement is one of them,” Mr Tilling said. The story began in November 1963, when Norm and Judy Tilling opened a small timber factory in Eltham. From those early days, the business built its reputation on serving local builders and merchants with timber products defined by reliability, quality workmanship and a personal approach to service. What started as a modest operation was grounded in long hours, determination and a deep commitment to doing the work well. As the decades unfolded, that small Eltham factory began to grow beyond its original footprint. During the 1970s and 1980s, the business expanded its timber import operations and developed an international supply chain, strengthening Tilling Timber Imports and building capability that reached far beyond its local beginnings. In 1990, a new chapter of growth opened with the establishment of the Newcastle (Carrington Wharf) bulk receiving yard, significantly enhancing import and distribution capacity and extending the business’s national reach. Innovation continued through the 1990s. In 1994, the business was appointed exclusive Australian distributor of Willamette Valley Lumber Company’s LVL and I-joist products, bringing engineered timber solutions into the Australian market. In 1995, the SmartFrame engineered wood brand was launched, further shaping the direction of the business for years to come. As demand for engineered timber solutions grew, manufacturing operations were relocated to Kilsyth to support increasing value-added production and evolving industry needs. Through each stage of expansion, the business continued to evolve while holding closely to the values established at its beginning. Those values were formally recognised in 2021, when Norm and Judy Tilling were named industry icons by NTHA. In 2023, the business marked 60 years in operation, and leadership transitioned to Managing Director Glenn Tilling, continuing the family stewardship into its next generation. Today, Tilling stands as a manufacturer and wholesaler of engineered wood products. Its SmartFrame, FrameSmart, Architectural Products and SmartFrame Design Centre divisions support builders, designers and timber merchants across Australia with engineered timber solutions, technical expertise and support. Despite decades of growth and change, Mr Tilling said the relationships built along the way remain at the heart of the business. “The relationships we have built with our trading partners, particularly our customers, have been central to Tilling’s success and have shaped the Tilling Group into what it is today. The Tilling family and I sincerely thank you for your support and the journey we have shared over the years.” Tilling SmartFrame will continue operating under the Tilling name, retaining its existing staff and service standards following the change in ownership. “There will be no change to the service and relationships you have come to expect from us. We are confident this next chapter, under new ownership, will create further opportunities for your business,” Mr Tilling said.

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Natasa Sikman is among three new speakers confirmed for the 2026 Forestry Australia Symposium, bringing the view from inside federal policy to a program now set. The three-day event runs at the Rex Hotel in Canberra from Wednesday 7 to Friday 9 October. Source: Timberbiz Early bird registration is open until Sunday 12 July, after which standard rates apply. Ms Sikman has spent two decades in Federal Parliament, including a stretch as chief of staff to former Labor agriculture minister Joel Fitzgibbon, before moving into forest products advocacy. At the Australian Forest Products Association, she led policy and served as acting chief executive, and she now advises on federal government affairs at Chevron. It is a career built largely at the meeting point of forestry, policy and politics, which is much of what this year’s Symposium sets out to examine. Steve Whiteley and Sarah Norris have also been confirmed as speakers at the event. Mr Whiteley offers four decades of Tasmanian forest management, as independent chair of the State Fire Commission and, until his retirement in 2025, through 12 years as chief executive of Sustainable Timber Tasmania, the state’s public production forest manager. Ms Norris, is head of social impact and community at Snowy Hydro, and brings more than 15 years on major infrastructure, energy and government projects and a focus on the community side of large, complex builds. They join a bill confirmed over recent months: Janina Gawler of RST Solutions, previously an executive at Rio Tinto; Alexandra Gartmann of the Australian Farm Institute; and Luke Martin, former chief executive of Salmon Tasmania. Keynote addresses will come from journalist and author Stan Grant and Dr Simon Longstaff AO, executive director of The Ethics Centre. This year’s theme, The forestry story: Strategies for improved awareness, social licence and effective engagement, frames a program that builds on Forestry Australia’s 2025 Conference which was in Adelaide and its 2024 Symposium in Ballarat. It gathers the forest science and management community to work through how forestry explains itself to the audiences that will shape its future, from local communities and Traditional Owners to policymakers, the media and the public. The 2026 Symposium runs at the Rex Hotel, Canberra, from Wednesday 7 to Friday 9 October, across two days of plenary and concurrent sessions followed by a day of field trips. Early bird registration closes on Sunday 12 July, at $765 for members, $1,095 for non-members and $95 for full-time student members, inclusive of GST. Full registration covers all sessions, day catering, the Welcome Reception on 7 October, the Symposium Dinner on 8 October and one field trip on 9 October. Registration and the full program are available on the conference website, and invoices can be arranged through conference@forestry.org.au

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A Bay of Plenty rūnanga boss is optimistic locals will benefit from an industrial bio-energy hub proposed in one of New Zealand’s largest plantation forestry estates. Source: RNZ Investors and Te Rūnanga o Ngāti Manawa are exploring the possibility of building a new bio-refinery hub around Kaingaroa Forest Estate, between Rotorua and Taupō. The concept was driven by NZ Bio Forestry – a New Zealand company launched in 2018, with shareholders in Singapore and Taiwan – on a mission to utilise plantation forestry in reducing the reliance on fossil fuels. It wanted to turn forestry biomass into biofuels, bio-chemicals and residues from a New Zealand-based bio-refinery. The company, backed by the forest’s major shareholding iwi, agreed to carry out a feasibility study for a forestry-based processing centre around Kaingaroa and Murupara Villages. The forest spanning about 200,000 hectares was returned to tangata whenua in 2009, marking one of the largest Te Tiriti o Waitangi/Treaty of Waitangi settlements. It is now owned by a central North Island iwi collective and leased out to commercial entities like major employer Kaingaroa Tipu, formerly Timberlands, with its logging operation. With Ngāti Manawa representing about 5000 mana whenua, chair Kani Edwards said, while the project was still in its early stages, he hoped it would create jobs for locals. “There are a lot of boxes that need to be ticked in order to get this off the ground, but if we get this right, it would be incredible,” he said. “For too many years, both Kaingaroa and Murupara have been in economic decline, and we think this is the opportunity that can change that.” The largely Māori area was once a bustling centre for forestry workers during the logging booms of recent decades, after it was first planted about a century ago. Since then, many private forestry companies have come and left the area or headed to nearby Rotorua and Taupō instead. Edwards said, over the years, many workers and their whānau exited the villages hunting work, so the community now faced acute socio-economic challenges it was trying to address. “Murupara and Kaingaroa, we have some of the highest social and economic issues probably in the Bay of Plenty,” he said. “We have one of the highest unemployment rates, we have some of the highest social and health problems as well. “First and foremost, if we can get our people into full-time employment and get stable incomes coming in, then that sets the tone for everything else and the families can start getting better quality of life.” Among other things, Edwards hoped that a sawmill would be introduced in the hub. NZ Bio Forestry chief executive and owner Wayne Mulligan said it wanted to utilise the abundant and durable forestry resource, while boosting regional development. “It’s about helping the foresters – they’re in a bit of a slump to be honest – and to help them see that what they’re growing can be put to more uses than export logs. “We look to Manawa – to Murupara and Kaingaroa Village – as the place where New Zealand’s next industrial transformation can begin.” Over the next six months, it will investigate opportunities in advanced wood processing, renewable energy, green chemistry, land assessments and other high‑value bio‑based industries in the area. Any future development would be subject to due diligence, commercial viability, governance approvals, regulatory processes and community engagement. If successful, construction would begin this year or early next. The company wanted to replicate what it called a scalable model for an industrial forestry-based hub at other sites across Aotearoa. The rūnanga held community meetings regarding the project last week.

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Timber Queensland has joined The Queensland Farmers’ Federation (QFF) is as its newest peak body member. QFF CEO Jo Sheppard said QFF welcomed the opportunity to work alongside a critical industry which is deeply embedded in regional communities, and which contributes significantly to the Queensland economy. Source: Timberbiz Timber Queensland is the peak forest and timber industry body in Queensland with a unique and diverse membership base consisting of businesses from growers, harvesters, sawmillers, treaters and merchants through to timber users including manufacturers, architects and builders. “As an industry with a well-established local manufacturing base, timber contributes almost $4 billion to the state economy and supports around 23,000 jobs, 70 percent of which are regionally based,” Ms Sheppard said. “We also know that the forest and timber industry faces many of the same challenges as the broader agricultural sector, including biosecurity, secure access to productive land, awareness and attraction for a workforce with diverse skilling requirements, and managing rising input costs, including fuel. “There are also significant opportunities for this industry – growing demand both domestically and globally for timber as a construction material, carbon markets, bioenergy and other opportunities to add value to waste streams, and the State Government’s 25-year Queensland Future Timber Plan. “It will be fantastic to have Timber Queensland at the table as part of the QFF peak body membership and QFF looks forward to working alongside Timber Queensland to proactively navigate these challenges and opportunities to position the industry and its supply chain for a profitable, productive and sustainable future. “QFF is a great vehicle that enables agricultural peak bodies to come together and work collaboratively on policy and cutting-edge projects. It is so important – we cannot do it alone and we are stronger together.” Timber Queensland CEO Mick Stephens said it is important to acknowledge that forestry and wood products are an integral part of the food and fibre supply chain, making it logical to work collaboratively with other peak agricultural industry bodies through QFF. “Many of the issues and opportunities for the timber industry are the same as for broader agriculture, such as workforce development and training, regulation, market access and resource security,” Mr Stephens said. “In particular, we are excited by the opportunities for better integration of forest assets and wood production trees with farming as additional sources of income through timber, carbon and related natural capital markets. “The Queensland Government has also set an ambitious goal of revitalising and growing the timber industry as part of the Queensland Future Timber Plan, including through plantation expansion and related agroforestry activities. “Forestry and downstream processing can provide a broad range of on-farm benefits such as shade and shelter for livestock, improved soil and water quality and business resilience as well as much needed timber to build our growing demand for homes and public infrastructure. “We look forward to working with the QFF and other member bodies to promote a strong and prosperous future, through well-targeted policy advocacy and industry development in Queensland”. Timber Queensland joins QFF’s membership which consists of 20 state and national peak agricultural industry organisations who collectively represent more than 13,000 primary producers across Queensland.

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AFPA has welcomed the sale of the Rushy Lagoon property in north-east Tasmania to expand Australia’s sovereign capability in sustainable timber production. Source: Timberbiz The Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) has approved UK-based investment company Gresham House to purchase the large property near Launceston and allow forestry development along with other agricultural production. “We welcome this important strategic investment to help support and grow Australia’s sovereign capability for sustainable timber production and supply,” AFPA acting deputy Chief Executive Dominic Lane said. “During the building boom in COVID, we couldn’t rely on imports to meet our housing needs in Australia, so new opportunities to strengthen our sovereign capability and investment are critical. “We also know various forms of agriculture can co-exist in Australia to provide long-term and sustainable benefits to regional communities, local jobs, the national economy and wider population.” In recent years, there has been a significant reduction in forestry plantations, with Australia’s national plantation estate falling by 264,000 hectares from 1.973 million hectares in 2014-15 to 1.709 million hectares in 2024-25. Fortunately, a bipartisan national commitment for federal plantation grants in 2022 has helped to reverse this decline, and enabled estates to grow. “We sincerely thank Federal Agriculture and Forestry Minister the Hon Julie Collins for administering these important grants; however we are still more than 260,000 hectares below the 2014-15 plantation levels, which remains a concern,” Mr Lane said. “It was fantastic to see both major parties recognising the importance of growing the total area of production forestry with bipartisan support for this grant program at the 2022 election. “The choice between wood or steel by a homebuilder also makes a big difference between starting with a healthy carbon credit or a deficit. A typical timber house frame absorbs 9.5 tonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.”

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The CEFC, Aviva Investors and Gresham House have launched a groundbreaking $142 million project to invest in sustainable forestry plantations in Tasmania, creating local jobs and injecting significant capital into the regional economy while generating high integrity Australian Carbon Credits Units (ACCUs) and protecting an important Ramsar wetland. Source: Timberbiz The new Tasmania Natural Asset Trust (TNAT) platform is an afforestation and natural capital platform to be managed by Gresham House Asset Management (GHAM). It has investments from the CEFC, Aviva Investors and Gresham House Limited. The cornerstone asset for the platform is a vast 21,745ha property in northern Tasmania Rushy Lagoon. This critical investment converts degraded farmland into a production model that will boost the Australia’s forestry industry, create local jobs, support sustainable timber production, introduce sustainable grazing and protect the unique environment. The pioneering project will combine commercial softwood plantations on low productive land with large-scale conservation and ecological restoration and sustainable grazing. This is expected to provide a major boost to Tasmania’s forestry industry. The Radiata Pine trees produced by the project are expected to be processed locally by Tasmanian-based sawmills and supplied into the Australian market. This will alleviate some of Tasmania’s wood supply pressures and help divert harvesting away from native forests. It is expected to stimulate the local economy, creating jobs for contractors, sawmill operators, field surveyors and planting crews. In addition, sustainable agricultural activities will continue in designated areas across the property. “This critical investment converts degraded farmland into a production model that will boost the Australia’s forestry industry, create local jobs, support sustainable timber production, introduce sustainable grazing and protect the unique environment,” CEFC Head of Natural Capital, Heechung Sung said. “It is a demonstration of the power of institutional capital to drive economic development for regional communities while also supporting decarbonisation and positive environmental outcomes.” Direct benefits are expected to include: More than 190 new jobs over the life of the project. Production of approximately five million tonnes of timber and 3.2 million ACCUs. Timber will be grown under Forestry Stewardship Council (FSC) certification or Program for the Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC) and be processed by Tasmanian sawmills to help offset a critical shortage of construction timber in the Australian housing market.   “This initiative represents a long-term equity investment in nature and Australian forestry that will provide significant local employment and contractor opportunities. By utilising high-integrity Plantation Forestry and Environmental Plantings Australian Carbon Credit Unit methods, the economics support the establishment of this new large scale investment opportunity, generating commercial returns,” Ms Sung said. Greta Talbot-Jones, Director of Natural Capital at Aviva Investors and co-Portfolio Manager of the Carbon Removal Fund, said that it is an important project in Tasmania with the potential to create real economic benefits for the region and repair a degraded area of land through considered and sensitive afforestation. “We think it will be a great example of how our investment activity can deliver long-term investment outcomes, whilst having a positive and real-world benefit on the surrounding habitat and within local communities. “Working with the CEFC and Gresham House, alongside local land and development partners in Tasmania, gives us clear, direct reporting lines which are vitally important in helping to deliver on our financial and sustainability ambitions to create positive change and long-term value.” Dorian van Raalte, Associate Director, Forestry and Natural Capital at Gresham House said that TNAT is a new model for sustainable land management in Tasmania. “By combining climate-positive forestry with restoration of high-value habitats, we aim to deliver durable natural capital outcomes while supporting regional jobs and skills. Our management approach prioritises safeguards, certification and transparent monitoring, including the protection of the Lower Ringarooma Ramsar site.” Rushy Lagoon includes ecologically significant wetlands and threatened species, with part of the purchase area intersecting the internationally recognised Floodplain Lower Ringarooma River Ramsar Site. Alongside restoration of the wetlands and conservation areas, the project design will include protective buffers and hydrology safeguards to help maintain the ecological character of the Ramsar site.

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With the depths of winter upon us, we are starting to see softening oil prices and reduced export related costs giving a flicker of light at the end of the tunnel. Let’s hope that light is not a train. Traditionally, the third quarter of the year sees the bottom of the log market and the emergence of some green shoots in terms of demand and price. This year appears to be a trend follower, albeit we haven’t seen the severe price reductions in late Q2 that we have in previous years. Interestingly, the bottom of the cycle has been less severe year-on-year for the past 4 years, with the bottom of the 2026 cycle only 5% below the 12-month average. This is compared to 8% in 2025, 10% in 2024 and 25% in 2023. We need to view these numbers with caution however, as 2026 is only just past halfway and there’s plenty of potential speedbumps ahead which, as we know from recent events, can come out of nowhere. If we look back at the export log price history over the past 7 years it is obvious that export pricing has become increasingly more stable over time, with the previous 9 months being the most stable in memory. This doesn’t mean that stability has led to increased forest owner returns, it just means that returns are more predictable, not more palatable. June saw a reduction in spot prices of around $8/JAS (based on SNI prices), which was a result of the Trump effect. Increased war-related freight costs and foreign exchange stung the cost side. while poorer buyer sentiment saw CFR sales prices take a dip. July At Wharf gate (AWG) prices have bounced back somewhat from the June reduction into the early $120’s/JAS (A grade shorts) as all of the aforementioned factors have reversed. It is expected that August will be higher again and more reminiscent of the previous 9 months. Freight is expected to reduce later in the month from the mid $US40s to somewhere in the high $US30s, foreign exchange has taken a bath to a 7-month low in the mid $US0.56 range and the CFR price is expected to gain a couple of $US. The $US:NZ will likely be affected by the Reserve Bank’s posturing in July as they contemplate a rate hike, although the expectation of this is lower now due the economic damage from the Iran debacle. Much of our ability to lever prices higher will be a direct result of total New Zealand supply. Large-scale wind events in the upper South Island and lower North Island continue to put significant volumes of log into the market. Also, although the lower North Island salvage is now mostly complete, the Nelson/Tasman cleanup still has a way to go. This volume is not price sensitive so will continue to hit the wharves regardless of the market. What this does mean in the medium to longer term is that we now have significant holes in the longer-term supply equation. This has played out in the CNI following Cyclone Gabrielle, with a significant reduction in harvest levels around Taupo as those forests now recover from a massive windthrow salvage program. The ability for this harvest capacity to move elsewhere is limited as there simply aren’t the large-scale opportunities anywhere else in the country (with the exception of Gisborne but that’s another story). The likely scenario is that New Zealand supply will decrease incrementally over the next few years as these large tracts of forest recover from the wind-related decimation of their age classes. Wind damage is now becoming an expected rather than a random event and many forest managers now have sold battle plans for when, not if, this happens in their estates. Current China inventory sits around the 2.5 million mark, which is down very slightly on June, and daily consumption is in the early to mid-50,000 m3 range, which is expected for this time of year as the market starts to pull out of the rainy season. Daily consumption is expected to increase toward the back end of August as the China construction season ramps up pushing consumption through 60,000 m3/day. This is likely the point that we will see the squeeze on supply and better opportunities for price increases, provided Trump doesn’t have another military brainwave. India continues to tick over with around 12 vessels planned for July from NZ, Australia, Uruguay and the USA. Monsoon rains have slowed construction and also affected the movement of freight which will likely have a flow-on effect to log demand. T he Indian Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has dropped to 54.2 for June, down from 55 in May and the second weakest since mid-2022. While still in positive territory (above 50) it does reflect the reduced demand from European markets. There appears to be plenty of excitement from Indian buyers around the pending FTA, however, it is very unlikely that NZ will see the full value of the tariff reduction. It will, however, create additional demand which will pull supply away from China likely creating more total demand pressure for NZ radiata. Domestic mills in the SNI have been hand-to-mouth with log supply as weather and poor production start to bite. Sawmills in the South Island have seen increased demand for lumber as the effect of the Eves Valley mill closure in Nelson becomes evident. Latest data from Stats NZ shows a 19% increase of issued residential building consents to the end of May 2026 compared to the previous 12-month period. This is the end of three successive years of decline but is however, still 25% below the 2021–2022 period. Commercial consents still show declines with a 19% reduction over the same period, but farm buildings bucked the commercial trend with an increase of 34%, which is not surprising considering the current sheep, beef and dairy prices. The planting season is off to a slow start with drier conditions around the country. Total planting numbers will be significantly down […]

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