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IKEA is one of the world’s largest consumers of wood. Almost 15 million cubic metres of the material are used every year in cheap IKEA products with millions of trees felled for the mass production machine. Source: Danish Film Institute IKEA Loves Wood (‘IKEA elsker træ’) is a Danish investigative documentary that looks at IKEA’s forestry practices in the Rumanian Carpathian Mountains, an area with some of the last old-growth forests of Europe. Biologists, environmental groups and local activists say the Swedish furniture giant’s timber production is having a significant impact on old-growth forests and biodiversity. IKEA, however, states that it doesn’t tolerate illegal or unethical practices and that its suppliers are carefully selected. A trailer in English for the documentary is at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IodzOvrrfNA The documentary is available to view in Danish with English subtitles at: https://www.dw.com/en/ikea-loves-wood/video-77861212

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A research initiative has demonstrated that there is “major potential” for English-grown timber in sustainable construction. The Building from England’s Woodlands project, funded by the Forestry Commission’s Woods into Management Forestry Innovation Fund, has demonstrated that England’s broadleaf forests could play a role in delivering low-carbon buildings, supporting biodiversity and strengthening domestic supply chains. Source: Inside housing The project, led by the New Model Institute for Technology and Engineering (NMITE), Edinburgh Napier University, Built Environment – Smarter Transformation (BE-ST), Ecosystems Technologies and dRMM Architects, explored how English-grown timber can be used more effectively in modern building systems. It found that English hardwoods can play a significant role in structural applications when selected and specified appropriately. The project also developed hybrid engineered timber products that combine hardwood and softwood within the same structural element. Testing showed that hybrid cross-laminated timber and glued-laminated timber products (glulam) met all required strength and durability criteria using existing manufacturing methods. The use of hardwood in key structural zones also allowed for material savings of approximately between 10% and 15%. Real-world examples included the Building from Forests display at the Victoria and Albert Museum in London, and the installation of a hybrid hardwood-softwood glulam beam in NMITE’s new Skills Hub building in Hereford. The project also found that the greater use of English timber could reduce embodied carbon, increase long-term carbon storage in buildings, support more resilient and biodiverse forests, and strengthen rural economies through local manufacturing and value-added processing. The findings mark a step towards a future where forests, manufacturing and construction work together to create sustainable buildings while supporting healthier landscapes and stronger local economies, the research said. The research also aligns with the UK government’s Timber in Construction Roadmap and wider net zero ambitions. David Bole, head of green economy and skills at the Forestry Commission, said: “By unlocking the potential of our forests, we can reduce reliance on imported and carbon-intensive materials, support healthier and more resilient woodlands, and create new opportunities for sustainable growth across the forestry, manufacturing and construction sectors.” Louise Rogers, impact manager of housing and manufacturing at BE-ST, said: “This work directly supports the ambitions of the Timber in Construction Roadmap by providing evidence that innovation, domestic manufacturing capability and supply chain collaboration can help accelerate the transition to a lower-carbon built environment.” Last month, researchers at the University of Manchester found that future climate change will need a clear shift in the sector towards summer cooling requirements in social housing. In April, a housing association urged social landlords to step up their efforts to improve biodiversity, saying it is “in the sector’s interest” to invest in nature recovery.  

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How is an energy shock driving up costs across the wood products supply chain and clouding the 2026 housing recovery. Source: Fastmarkets The North American wood products market entered 2026 carrying the weight of a difficult 2025. Weaker housing starts, modest repair and remodeling activity and declining furniture production kept demand under pressure across major product categories. Now, a new force is moving through the market: an energy shock tied to the Iran war. To understand why it matters, we need to compare where the market stood in 2025 with what the 2026 outlook now shows. From soft demand in 2025 to a cost-driven 2026 In 2025, the story was largely about weak demand. While softwood lumber demand declined, other wood products also saw a downturn, including US hardwood lumber, OSB, plywood, particleboard, MDF, I-joists, and LVL. Pricing for softwood lumber was weak in the third and fourth quarters, because demand decreased in the second half of the year and inventory built up. Now firmly into 2026, demand pressure remains, but a major energy disruption sits at the centre of the outlook. Approx 20% of global LNG supply and 15% of oil supply have been disrupted, representing what is the biggest energy supply shock in history. The result is a market dealing with both soft demand and rising input costs; a stagflationary shock. How the energy shock moves through the supply chain The effects are already visible across multiple stages of the wood products supply chain: Logging operations are feeling the squeeze from soaring fuel costs. We anticipate that a sharp rise in diesel prices in early 2026 could have a serious impact on logging activity in the coming quarters as consumer demand continues to be soft. Mills and wholesalers. Mills and wholesalers have introduced fuel surcharges to deal with the spike in fuel costs. These surcharges continue to challenge the middle part of the supply chain, with downstream users having little ability to absorb the cost increases. Resin and wax costs. For panel producers, resin and wax costs are a source of further pressure. These petrochemical products account for anywhere between 10-35% of variable production costs for products like OSB, plywood, particleboard and MDF. Shipping disruption is spreading from Europe to the Middle East, Africa and Asia as freight rates rise. That disruption creates additional uncertainty on key wood product trade routes. Consumer spending. Higher energy prices act as a tax on consumers. They reduce household wealth and weigh on discretionary spending, including home purchases and repair and remodeling activity. The energy story is therefore both a cost issue and a demand issue.   The key variables for a housing recovery Our analysis of the 2026 housing market suggests a potential recovery, but several challenges could stand in its way. Key variables, such as inflation and interest rates, will play a significant role. Uncertainty around these factors could influence Federal Reserve decisions, potentially keeping mortgage rates elevated. Additionally, we expect lower real disposable income, partly due to higher energy costs, to impact residential construction activity. Our forecast reflects this pressure on both new construction and remodeling projects, with the energy situation being a major influence on demand trends for 2026 and a potential rebound in 2027. So, why is this important for wood products? The sectors most crucial to this industry—housing, repair and remodelling, freight and logging—are very exposed to the unprecedented supply disruptions in energy markets, either through direct costs or the effect of higher energy costs on interest rates. While we don’t believe a recession is likely, discretionary and rate-sensitive parts of the economy that drive wood products demand remain vulnerable. The most direct signal to monitor is the pace of inflation, which has spiked due to the current energy supply chain disruptions. The inflation picture influences interest rates, which are a key headwind on housing affordability and discretionary spending for home improvement. Both of these are key to driving wood product demand. The quicker this inflation shock is resolved, the quicker a more sustained rebound in wood products demand will be realized. You can view the full report at https://www.fastmarkets.com/forest-products/wood-products/wood-products-market-analysis-2026/

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From a timber-built statue to creative glulam marketing concepts, students at Millicent North Primary School are proving they could be the next generation of Green Triangle timber ambassadors. Source: Timberbiz Grade five and six students have spent the past term exploring the potential of locally produced Glued Laminated Timber, known as glulam, and the opportunities it could create for regional manufacturing and construction. Using a problem-based learning framework supported by the Department for Education’s Student Pathways and Careers division, guided by Dr Sue Gaardboe, the 10-week initiative connected students with a genuine forest industry challenge. The project was developed in partnership with the Green Triangle Forest Industries Hub (GTFIH), which has developed a world first glulam product made exclusively from locally grown bluegum (eucalyptus globulus). With the product now commercially available and entering early market adoption, the Hub recognised the value of gaining fresh marketing perspectives from young people as part of its broader market-building efforts. The first of its kind primary school program was facilitated by GTFIH Workforce Development Manager Lara Kroeger and supported by Australian Bluegum Plantations’ Georgina Macklin. Ms Kroeger said the project demonstrated the power of meaningful collaboration between education and industry. “This was not an easy project for the students to take on. Glulam is a technical product, and the topic asked students to think about forestry, manufacturing, marketing and community awareness,” Ms Kroeger said. “But the school fully embraced it, and it was fantastic to see the students’ curiosity grow over the term. The more they learned, the more confident they became in talking about our industry. By the end of the program, they had truly become young ambassadors for the role forestry and timber can play in our region.” Ms Kroeger said year 5/6 teacher Sarah Gellion played a key role in helping students explore a complex industry challenge in a practical and meaningful way. Throughout the term, students took part in classroom session on plantation forestry, glulam and the local timber supply chain, before heading into the field for a full-day excursion to see the industry at work. The showcase included a blue gum chipping operation hosted by PF Olsen (now Stand Forestry) and Qube Forestry; a softwood clear fall with OneFortyOne and Fennell Forestry; plus, a classroom overview about glulam manufacturing supported by WTIBeam. Drawing on their experiences, students presented their initial marketing concepts to industry partners, receiving feedback to refine their ideas before delivering their final presentations this week to a full house of parents, teachers and industry representatives. ABP’s Georgina Macklin said the students’ final ideas were shaped by the challenge that many people simply do not know what glulam is or where it can be used. “They turned that insight into practical ideas for increasing community awareness and showing the potential of increasing the usage of locally made glulam,” Ms Macklin said. ABP CEO Darren Shelden applauded the students’ creativity and enthusiasm. “The outcomes delivered in this 10-week program were exceptional,” Mr Shelden said. “It clearly demonstrates the value of problem-based learning when industry and education work together. These students developed a stronger understanding of our sector, sharpened their critical thinking skills and built confidence through public speaking and presenting. “Most importantly, this project reflects our industry’s commitment to investing in the next generation.” To recognise the students’ efforts, GTFIH and ABP gifted students LEGO harvester sets, while WTIBeam owner Jason Vulcz donated a giant Jenga set to the classroom and chopping boards for the teachers, all made from locally grown bluegum.

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WA has three programs underway to add more trees with Treebate, the Tree Recovery Program and now 850 trees to be planted in Perth. Source: Timberbiz South Perth planting The City’s annual tree planting program is underway, helping to increase canopy cover, provide shade, support local biodiversity and create greener neighbourhoods. This winter, 850 new 35L trees will be planted across streets and open spaces in the City of South Perth. The planting program began on 1 July and will introduce a range of native and locally suited species across verges, drainage sumps and public reserves. Planting is expected to be completed by the end of September. All 850 trees were grown in the City’s nursery, with 481 to be planted as street trees, 95 in drainage sumps and 274 in public reserves. The planting program features hardy native species, including coral gum (Eucalyptus torquata), white paperbark (Melaleuca preissiana) and marri (Corymbia calophylla), chosen for their suitability to local conditions. These waterwise, heat-tolerant species are well adapted to urban environments and will help create a greener, more resilient city that is better equipped to cope with a changing climate. The tree planting program forms part of the City’s broader urban greening approach, supported by its Urban Greening Strategy adopted in 2025, which outlines long-term efforts to expand canopy cover, enhance biodiversity and improve climate resilience across the City. Residents can request a street tree for their verge where there is suitable space. Approved trees are planted as part of the City’s annual winter planting program and receive regular watering during their first two summers to help them establish. Treebate program WA’s Government’s Treebate program was announced in January last year. The program aims encourage Western Australians to plant native trees on their properties. For the next four years, up to 10,000 Western Australians a year can claim a rebate on the purchase of a native tree to plant on their private property as part of the new Treebate initiative. Western Australians who purchase a native tree from a local nursery can make a claim of up to $150 via the ServiceWA app. All Western Australians aged 18 years and over are eligible to claim one native tree. To receive the rebate you must: Choose a native tree with a canopy that reaches at least three metres in height when mature. Have a photo of the plant label showing the scientific or common name to upload in your claim. Get a tax invoice as proof of purchase. You will need a valid tax invoice to claim your rebate.   Shot-Hole Borer program WA has been hit by the shot-hole borer and the state’s Tree Recovery Program supports people and places following the loss of trees due to Polyphagous shot-hole borer. The Department of Water and Environmental Regulation is managing the delivery of the WA Tree Recovery Program, working closely with residents, local governments and the Perth Zoo to replant trees lost from the effects of Polyphagous shot-hole borer (PSHB). Shot-hole borer has been impacting trees in backyards across Perth in recent years. If you are a resident impacted by tree loss due to shot-hole borer, you may be eligible for a rebate worth up to $150 for every tree you replace.

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Three new spatial datasets provide a national picture of feral deer distribution across Australia. One dataset provides gridded maps of known feral deer occurrence, while the other two provide modelled estimates of the current relative abundance of fallow deer and sambar deer respectively. Source: Timberbiz Developed in collaboration with state and territory governments, CSIRO and other stakeholders, these datasets provide the first nationally consistent picture of feral deer distribution and help fill an important knowledge gap for a wide range of users. Feral deer occur in every state and territory and are widespread in New South Wales, Victoria, the ACT and Tasmania, with more limited distributions elsewhere. Six deer species are present in Australia. Fallow, sambar, red and rusa deer are widespread across multiple jurisdictions, while chital deer are largely confined to Queensland and New South Wales, and hog deer to Victoria. Deer cause significant damage to forests throughout the world. They cause damage with heavy grazing, browsing on young saplings and ring-barking mature trees. They also inhibit forest regeneration, diminish plant biodiversity, and can trigger soil erosion and the spread of invasive weeds. More information at: https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/invasive-species/feral-deer

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Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), the world’s largest battery manufacturer, has entered into a strategic investment partnership with CarbonScape, a New Zealand-founded developer of sustainable bio-based graphite materials for battery applications. Source: Timberbiz The collaboration combines CarbonScape’s innovative biographite technology with CATL’s extensive experience in industrialization, manufacturing, and large-scale deployment. The transaction provides CATL with board representation, and positions it as an important industrialization partner in the further development and scaling of CarbonScape’s technology, as automakers and policymakers seek low-carbon, locally sourced and cost-competitive anode materials for the US and European graphite supply chain. New Zealand-based bio-graphite developer CarbonScape announced that CATL has made a strategic investment in the company. The partnership will combine CarbonScape’s bio-graphite technology with CATL’s industrialization expertise to accelerate large-scale deployment and support commercialization in Europe and other global markets. CarbonScape said its technology converts forestry by-products into battery-grade graphite with a target cost comparable to conventional graphite while offering a significantly lower carbon footprint. The rapid growth of electric mobility and energy storage is expected to drive significant demand for battery-grade graphite. CarbonScape has developed a proprietary process that converts forestry by-products into battery-grade graphite suitable for lithium-ion battery applications. Through this collaboration, CATL will contribute its expertise in industrial scale-up, manufacturing operations, process optimization, and commercialization. “This partnership is about far more than capital. It provides access to CATL’s unparalleled expertise in scaling and mass production, world-class facilities, global market reach, and a clear pathway to gigafactory-scale deployment,” Ivan Williams, CEO of CarbonScape said “It validates the strategic importance of biographite in the future of electrification and uniquely aligns technical de-risking with route-to-market readiness. Together, we aim to bring commercial biographite production online by the end of the decade.” Vincent Ledoux-Pedailles, Chief Commercial Officer of CarbonScape said that graphite is the forgotten giant of the battery supply chain – the single largest material in every EV battery by volume, yet the majority of that supply is oil-based. The multi-year collaboration spans both technical and commercial objectives: Technology de-risking and scale-up: CarbonScape and CATL will validate the technology at demonstration scale at CATL facilities, and refine the process in preparation for full-scale commercial plants. Strategic investment and financing: CATL, along with Lochpine Capital, is now a strategic shareholder in CarbonScape and provides strategic support to the company. Their investment helps fund technology de-risking and scale-up, strengthening CarbonScape’s position for future commercial deployment. The partnership structure includes equity-based incentives aligned with the successful commercial deployment of CarbonScape’s technology. Graphite is the single largest material component in lithium-ion batteries by volume, representing up to 50% of the battery cell. Each electric vehicle contains roughly 50–100 kg of graphite, more than lithium, nickel, and cobalt, making it one of the most critical materials for the energy transition. Global demand for battery-grade graphite is expected to grow approximately six-fold between 2025 and 2040, driven by the rapid expansion of electric vehicles and energy storage. Meeting this demand will require substantial new production capacity and the development of alternative, more sustainable supply sources that are less carbon intensive than synthetic graphite but still cost competitive. Today more than 75% of graphite used in batteries comes from an oil-based feedstock. CarbonScape’s technology addresses both challenges by enabling the production of battery-grade graphite from widely available forestry by-products. This approach supports the development of regional supply chains while helping battery and automotive manufacturers meet increasingly stringent sustainability and regulatory requirements.

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Visitors to Mount Gambier’s newly opened Forestry Centre of Excellence are now greeted by a striking centrepiece: a handcrafted Scrimber table made by plantation industry stalwart David Quill. Source: Timberbiz Scrimber, a bold engineered-wood innovation invented in Australia in the mid-1980s by the CSIRO, has long since disappeared from local production. But for Mr Quill, the principal of Eumeralla forestry consulting, the material never lost its appeal. A friend had a small supply of offcuts tucked away from Mount Gambier’s ‘old pilot plant days’, and when he finally put blade to board, he discovered something unexpected. “I thought it would tear out and fight me the whole way,” he said, “but it proved to be beautiful wood to work with – it’s strong, stable and surprisingly forgiving.” Scrimber, commercially produced by Scrimber International from 1990 in Mount Gambier, used low-value softwood pulp-grade logs from thinnings with no traditional commercial value. The wood was crushed, mixed with adhesive, moulded and heat treated to create structural lengths up to 12m long. The product was locally recognised as a showcase element in the Mount Gambier Airport, prior to its recent replacement. The table took five full days of painstaking work to complete, a notable accomplishment given Mr Quill’s ongoing battle with MND and the restricted mobility that comes with it. Yet the project was driven by something deeper than craftsmanship alone. It began as a tribute to a friend, who was a former Scrimber pilot-plant worker diagnosed with terminal cancer who wished to see a table made from the resource before he passed. Mr Quill honoured that wish with his assistance, and from there, interest snowballed as word spread and memories of the material resurfaced. Professor Jeff Morrell, director of the Forestry Centre of Excellence, said the table had sparked plenty of interest among guests to the centre, with one visiting Adelaide University engineering professor revealing they had worked on the original CSIRO Scrimber project in its foundation days. “Reactions like this reinforce the piece’s value as a living link to the region’s innovation heritage,” Professor Morrell said. “This table is a stunning piece of craftsmanship and a tangible reminder of South Australia’s pioneering work in engineered wood and the creation of this unique engineered material. We are genuinely honoured to have David’s work here; it brings another link to our great timber history into the centre and fantastic it was made by a great champion for our research program.” Despite the challenges of MND, Mr Quill continues to create. When not making furniture, he has created a collection of decorative chopping boards using various wood species which are sold to raise funds for MND Australia. One recent sale fetched more than $1000.  

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Forest & Wood Communities Australia (FWCA) has called on the Australian Greens to support the proposed Senate disallowance of Labor’s Improved Native Forest Management carbon method ahead of the expected Senate vote on 18 August 2026, saying the vote will expose whether the party genuinely opposes carbon offsets or only opposes them when they deliver its preferred anti-forestry outcome. Source: Timberbiz The Improved Native Forest Management method allows state governments to generate Australian Carbon Credit Units by ceasing planned timber harvesting in defined areas of multiple-use public native forests. It also requires reduced wood extraction across the broader project area and imposes a 100-year permanence obligation. FWCA Chair and Director Steve Dobbyns said the method is not simply a conservation measure. It is a carbon-crediting mechanism that monetises the closure and restriction of sustainable native forestry. “This disallowance motion is a test of principle,” Mr Dobbyns said. “The Greens can vote to disallow this method, or they can admit they are prepared to support forest offsets when those offsets are used to shut down sustainable native forestry. “They cannot condemn carbon credits as a licence for big polluters one day, then defend the same offset mechanism when it is used to bankroll their preferred political outcome.” Mr Dobbyns said the INFM method raised serious concerns that FWCA and others had warned about from the beginning. “The first issue is additionality. “If governments have already made political commitments to close or reserve these forests, then the public is entitled to ask whether the carbon credits represent genuine new abatement or whether taxpayers and emitters are being asked to pay for a decision that was already politically intended. “The second issue is leakage. Timber demand does not disappear when harvesting is stopped in one region. It shifts to private forests, interstate supply, imported timber, steel, concrete and other substitute materials. If that leakage is not fully and honestly accounted for, the claimed carbon benefit is little more than accounting theatre. “The third issue is permanence. A 100-year carbon obligation is not a short-term policy adjustment, particularly when that century-long commitment is effectively being paid for through just 15 years of carbon credit payments. It is a century-long restriction on future forest management, timber supply, regional employment, housing materials and the capacity of future governments to respond to changing circumstances.” FWCA said the method also has implications beyond the specific areas where harvesting formally ceases. “This method is not limited to drawing a line around a park and walking away,” Mr Dobbyns said. “It operates across whole forestry regions and requires reduced wood extraction across the broader project area. That means the economic and supply impacts can extend well beyond the immediate carbon protection areas, and risks creating a financial incentive for governments to constrain or discourage private native forestry activity in surrounding landscapes, particularly where increased private harvesting could undermine claimed abatement through leakage. “That matters for sawmills, haulage contractors, harvest crews, timber workers, builders, manufacturers and regional towns that depend on a predictable supply of Australian hardwood.” Mr Dobbyns said the Greens’ own public comments had already exposed the contradiction at the centre of the debate. “The NSW Greens have criticised the idea of turning forests into carbon banks and offsets for climate polluters. On that point, we agree,” he said. “So, the question for the federal Greens is simple: will they vote according to that principle, or will they protect a method that does exactly what they claim to oppose?” FWCA said the INFM debate should not be misrepresented as a choice between conservation and forestry. “This is a choice between credible climate policy and political carbon accounting,” Mr Dobbyns said. “Australia needs carbon methods that are transparent, scientifically robust, fully account for leakage, and support active, adaptive forest management for carbon storage, fire resilience, biodiversity, cultural values and long-term forest health. “What we do not need is a carbon-crediting mechanism that shuts down one of the most heavily regulated timber industries in the world, increases pressure on imports and substitute materials, and then pretends the emissions consequences disappear.” Mr Dobbyns said the method also undermines Australia’s broader sovereign capability in timber and housing supply. “Australia is already under pressure to meet future timber demand,” he said. “Reducing domestic hardwood supply for the next 100 years will not help build homes, support local manufacturing or reduce reliance on imported timber from countries that may not meet Australian environmental, labour or governance standards. “You do not protect the global environment by closing well-regulated Australian production and outsourcing demand elsewhere.” FWCA said the proposed disallowance is now an integrity test for every party in the Senate. “If the Greens vote to disallow the method, they are standing by their stated opposition to forest offsets for polluters,” Mr Dobbyns said. “If they vote to protect it, they are not opposing dirty offsets. They are simply choosing which regional communities; workers and industries should be sacrificed to create them. “The Greens now have to choose – principle or politics.”

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The following is an open letter to Chris Bowen, Minister for Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water regarding the recent INFM announcement, it was written by John Raison a former CSIRO chief research scientist. Dear Minister The recently determined Improved Native Forest Management in Multiple-use Public Native Forests (INFM) ACCU method that aims to estimate high integrity carbon (C) offsets by ceasing harvest of native forests had been widely criticised. Opposition has come from associations representing the forestry and farming sectors, rural communities whose livelihoods depend on continued sustainable harvesting, trade unions, conservation groups, the Australia Institute, forest managers and many in the science community. The reasons for the strong push back include: clear failures to uphold the integrity standards of the ACCU scheme, especially additionality, leakage and ability to verify credits claimed; adverse socio-economic impacts which will greatly exceed any potential C benefit; a lack of transparency around how earlier concerns have been addressed and justification for the revised model; and strong concern that low-integrity credits will created and used to off-set (‘greenwash’) pollution from use of fossil fuels. Here, I focus on key weaknesses resulting from the misuse of science in developing the INFM. Much of this material was provided to the ERAC as part of the final consultation phase for the INFM method in early 2026. The determined method will generate bogus carbon credits with serious consequences for the credibility of the ACCU scheme. The INFM method is not supported by sound scientific evidence The proposed method has a weak conceptual foundation – by assuming that cessation of sustainable harvesting in native forests will result in a net reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and thus can provide reliable abatement. When a full and accurate life cycle analysis (LCA) approach is applied there is no evidence that this is the case and the reverse is more likely (Ximenes et al. 2016, Raison 2024). The LCA framework should include changes in forest C stocks; emissions from transport and processing wood products; changes in C stocks in wood products in use and in landfill; emissions avoided by using wood residues to replace fossil energy or by substituting wood products for more emissions-intensive construction materials; and any ‘indirect’ leakage of emissions that will result from increased production of wood products in other jurisdictions. Only one Australian study has adopted a complete and accurate LCA approach (Ximenes et al. 2016). That study, which included case studies in two important native forest regions in NSW, concluded that sustainable harvesting of native forests and the subsequent use of forest biomass to produce harvested wood products (HWP) or energy can make a positive contribution to mitigating national net C emissions. Some studies, such as those of Keith et al. (2014, 2015) have overestimated the benefits of ceasing harvesting because they have either been incomplete, used inappropriate parameters to estimate components of the total C balance, or overestimated the rate of C gain in older forests and the ability of unharvested forests to store C for the long-term. This has led to the incorrect conclusion that cessation of harvesting would provide better long-term C outcomes than sustainable management for wood production (Raison 2024). It is thus not possible to create reliable C credits by the cessation of native forest harvesting. Carbon stock change estimated by FullCAM will be highly uncertain. FullCAM estimates of long-term C stock change following disturbance by either harvesting or fire in highly heterogeneous (representing a wide range of species, forest ages and structures and site growing conditions) native forests remain uncertain. Detailed efforts to calibrate FullCAM for native forests (Forrester et al. 2025) found that the model has very low precision and some bias. Further, the model has not been independently tested for its reliability in estimating temporal change in C stocks following forest disturbance by harvesting or fire. Given the likely high level of uncertainty in FullCAM estimates of changes in C stocks at the time of harvesting, in regrowth and in unharvested forests, it is essential that the INFM method include a requirement for independent estimation of stock change based on solid field inventory. The credits estimated by the method are not verifiable. The method specifies the need to use ‘representative’ forest plots to describe combinations of forest type, forest age and silviculture. No guidance is provided on how representativeness can be determined, only a recipe on how plots that are used for modelling should be constructed in FullCAM. The spatial surfaces used to run FullCAM do not provide precise estimates of model inputs at specific forest locations. The INFM method also requires that representative plots should be ‘validated’ using an ‘iterative’ process to get a good match (+ or – 5%) between model outputs and prior records of harvest area and wood harvest – there is no guidance on how to do this. However, ‘tweaking’ model parameters to achieve this may well compromise the ability of the model to make reliable forward predictions. To run FullCAM requires a range of detailed parameters which are usually poorly known e.g. the % of harvested stems going to various wood products, the average age of trees, the age of the oldest trees – how can reliable estimates of these be obtained at specific locations? These issues mean model predictions will be very uncertain and there is no process in place to verify them. Estimating baseline C emissions is complex and unreliable/unverifiable. The INFM method critically depends on estimating a reliable baseline (what would have happened without any cessation of harvesting in the project). The method proposes that the baseline harvest level be estimated as the latest modified sustained yield to be calculated based on correlations between prior estimates of sustained yield and the annual amount of harvested wood. Arbitrary adjustments (reductions) are made depending on the strength of the correlation (R2) – if is > or equal to 0.7 then the annual harvest is calculated as the average log production to sustainable yield ratio over the baseline period. This is […]

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