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The Global Softwood Roundwood Supply Outlook points to annual supply growth of about 0.5% through 2035, below expected demand growth. Sources: Global Wood Trade Network, and Panels Furniture Asia The Global Softwood Roundwood Supply Outlook forecasts annual softwood supply growth of about 0.5% through 2035, below expected demand growth, as regional constraints limit the potential for increased production. The findings, from Håkan Ekström of Global Wood Trends and Glen O’Kelly of O’Kelly Acumen, are contained in a four-part market report covering North America; Europe and Russia; Latin America, Asia and Oceania; and the global market. The reports examine potential sources of future softwood supply and the factors that could limit growth. Softwood roundwood supply has remained broadly flat since 2000, despite continued growth in overall roundwood production. Meanwhile, demand for construction timber, packaging and biomass is expected to increase, putting further pressure on the availability and real prices of softwood logs. The global outlook varies significantly between regions. Softwood roundwood supply in 2025 was close to its 25-year average, following a sharp fall from its all-time high in 2021. Since 2000, North American supply has declined by almost 20%, while Europe and Russia, and the rest of the world, have each increased by about 18%. The regions that have driven supply growth, however, face different prospects over the next decade. A look at the five regions The US South has the greatest potential to increase softwood roundwood supply. Timber resources remain abundant and harvesting is below biological growth, but labour shortages, infrastructure constraints and the investment required to expand production are expected to limit the pace of growth. In Canada, several years of declining harvests, particularly in British Columbia, are expected to give way to stabilisation and modest recovery. Supply is unlikely to return to previous levels, however. Europe faces tighter constraints. Many forests are already being harvested close to sustainable biological limits, while sustainability policies, forest protection measures and climate-related damage are restricting further growth. The base scenario points to little overall change in European supply, with declines in Central Europe and the Baltics offset by growth elsewhere, particularly in the Nordic region. Russia has substantial underused softwood resources, but much of this potential is unlikely to translate into additional supply. Political risks, market-access restrictions, infrastructure limitations and investment requirements are expected to keep significant volumes untapped. In Latin America and Asia-Pacific, plantation forestry remains competitive, but the area devoted to softwood plantations has changed little over the past decade. Investment has increasingly shifted towards hardwood plantations, while investment in softwood plantations has remained broadly unchanged. Productivity gains are expected to support modest growth in softwood supply, rather than a major expansion. In Japan and New Zealand, lower availability is largely linked to uneven age-class structures in plantations. Demand will remain an important driver of the market. US housing, European construction and China’s property market are expected to support sawlog demand, while greater substitution of hardwood species and recycled fibre in pulp and wood-based panels could change demand for different softwood log grades. China could become an example of how tighter supply affects trade flows. As log availability in Asia-Pacific becomes more constrained and Chinese sawmilling costs increase, the country is likely to import more lumber instead of logs. Climate change and geopolitical developments add further uncertainty. Insects, storms, drought and wildfire could affect forest growth and salvage harvesting, while changes in international relations could redirect trade flows. Carbon policies are expected to have a more limited impact on commercial softwood supply. The outlook suggests that global softwood supply can continue to grow, but only modestly. The issue is not simply how much timber exists in the world’s forests, but how much can be harvested, processed and delivered competitively to the markets that need it. As regional resources become more constrained, accessible and competitively priced softwood logs are likely to become harder to source through 2035.

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Metsä Group’s planned wood-based carbon dioxide capture plant in Rauma has been awarded EUR 21 million in aid through the reverse auction organised by Finland’s Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment. In addition to supporting climate change mitigation, carbon dioxide capture would create new business opportunities. Source: Timberbiz “Receiving this aid is one of the key prerequisites for making the investment. We are talking about building an entirely new industrial value chain, in a market that is only beginning to take shape. The positive decision means that we can continue planning the plant. We are very pleased with the Ministry’s decision,” said Maria Mroué, VP, Communications and Brand, Metsä Group. In the Ministry’s reverse auction, aid was granted to projects requiring the lowest amount of support per unit of carbon dioxide capture capacity to be built. In Metsä Group’s project, carbon dioxide would be captured from the flue gases of the recovery boiler at the Rauma pulp mill. The final investment decision can be considered at the beginning of 2027 at the earliest. In addition to the aid, the investment decision is subject to obtaining an environmental permit, completing the engineering of the capture plant, and securing sufficient market demand. The aid will only be paid if the investment is carried out. Capturing biogenic carbon dioxide, such as carbon dioxide originating from wood, supports climate change mitigation by replacing fossil carbon. The project would also create new business opportunities by turning an existing side stream into a new commercial product. The planned carbon capture capacity in Rauma would be 100,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide per year. Metsä Group’s customers would use the captured carbon dioxide in the production of e-fuels. Using 100,000 tonnes of wood-based carbon dioxide annually in a fuel value chain would avoid fossil carbon dioxide emissions equivalent to the annual emissions of nearly 30,000 passenger cars.

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British Columbia’s (Canada) Forests Ministry has chosen a stretch of land near Campbell River to be the first candidate for a proposed new model of how forests and timber are managed in the province.  Source: Nanaimo News Under what the province has dubbed the “working forest landscape model,” the area north of and adjacent to Campbell River would be divided into three zones that dictate how and where trees can be logged. Forests Minister Ravi Parmar says the goal is to end “cut-block-by-cut-block permitting” and move to “operational plan forestry,” while environmental groups have pushed back, saying the plan would create guaranteed logging zones and obstruct the public’s ability to protect and conserve forests. Randene Neill, B.C.’s minister of water, land and resource stewardship, told a news conference Tuesday that the working forest landscape model, which includes partnerships with First Nations, is a good test of what needs to be done to transform forestry in a sustainable way. Parmar says the exercise of deciding how the zones will be divided has to be community-based and involve First Nations, local government, industry and environmental groups. A statement from the Forests Ministry says officials will undertake technical, socio-economic and environmental analysis to better understand how a three-zone approach could be applied to the landscape. Dallas Smith, president of the Nanwakolas Council that is partnering with the province on the Campbell River plan, says there has been talk of the need for change in B.C.’s forests for decades. “We’re happy to be participating in this actual paradigm shift, where we’re talking about how a working forest works hand-in-hand with the conservation values that are important to us as British Columbians, the biodiversity values,” says the First Nation leader.

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A group of firefighters from New Zealand and Australia is heading home after nearly a month helping fight wildfires near Mount Hood. Source: Katu Oregon forestry officials said the team has worked alongside crews on the fire lines of the Grasshopper, Austin, and Narrows fires. After 30 days battling the Oregon fires, the firefighters from Australia and New Zealand started their journey home on Saturday. “They brought their skill, professionalism and a good sense of humour to every shift. It has been a privilege to work alongside them, and we are incredibly thankful for their support,” state and federal forestry officials said. “Safe travels, and until next time, thank you!” As of Sunday, the more than 94,000-acre Grasshopper Fire burning to the east of Mount Hood is considered 96% contained. The Austin Fire is nearly 13,000 acres along the Clackamas River in the Mount Hood National Forest. It is now 54% contained and has just under 1,000 crew members working to contain the blaze. The nearby Narrows Fire is a relatively small 300 acres burning in the scar of the 2020 Riverside Fire in Clackamas County.

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Artificial intelligence-equipped cameras operating from fire towers across the Snowy Valleys are helping forestry crews with early detection and bushfire monitoring, bolstering firefighting capabilities ahead of the summer fire season.  Source: Tumut and Adelong Times Pano AI, an early bushfire detection company which operates the cameras, says its Australian network will grow from 50 to more than 80 stations by summer. In late 2025, Pano AI signed an agreement with Forestry Corporation to deploy fire detection cameras across 22 strategic locations in New South Wales, including in the Snowy Valleys region. Forestry Corporation NSW land management and innovation manager Jamie Carter said early detection and quick response are critical to firefighting in forested areas, and the AI cameras had already shown their value. “The name of the game, particularly in pine forests, is to detect, respond, and be actively suppressing within 30 minutes if you can,” he said. “The cameras, by aiding us with the detection process and monitoring fire escalation, allow us to streamline that process so we can get there quicker and be more effective on the ground.” Mr Carter said firefighting within pine forests is critical to the softwoods industry and to the communities which surround them. “In 2019-20 … we lost approximately $400 million worth of timber, just in this area, and that had flow-on impacts to sawmills and processors and employment in the other end of this industry,” he said. “It has a huge impact, and we really need to protect every bit of pine we have in the region.” Pano AI’s Andrew Prolov said the AI detection cameras work by taking a full 360-degree scan of the landscape every minute and checking for signs that could indicate a fire. “As soon as the AI detects what it believes to be fire, we have a human in the loop that will perform the validation,” he said. “When they believe it to be a fire, they release the alert that will go simultaneously to Forestry Corp as well as to the fire agencies and land management agencies in the region.” Pano AI co-founder and chief commercial officer Arvind Satyam said people remain part of the process even with the AI towers, confirming that flagged incidents are fires or smoke and not mistaken plumes of dust kicked up by tractors. While based in forestry areas, the cameras cover areas beyond the bounds of state forests, and Mr Carter emphasised that they enhance Forestry’s ability to detect, report and respond to fires both on and off forestry estate. Mr Prolov said Pano stations throughout the region cover all the strategic forestry estates but remain an important community asset. “Fire doesn’t respect boundaries,” he said. “What’s really important here is how well the community works together irrespective of where the fire may start, whether it’s inside the plantation or outside, everyone works together to catch that fire while it’s still small. “Of all the natural disasters we can face, fire is one that we can actually stop if we spot it early enough and collectively work to put it out.” The cameras not only enhance early detection but allow ongoing monitoring of fires as they evolve and better strategic deployment of firefighting resources. “We need to remember that when you go to fight a fire, someone is putting themselves in harm’s way,” Mr Prolov said. “By providing this technology to the community, what we want to do is identify those fires while they’re small so that the challenges those people on the front-line face are reduced.” Softwoods Working Group (SWG) advocated for NSW government funding for Pano AI cameras as part of the $13 million Plantations Fire Protection Fund, which led to cameras being installed outside Tumut in late 2025. SWG chair Dean Anderson said the technology enables quicker detection of fires, making a big difference to the effectiveness of the response. “The idea that we can actually get to a fire promptly means it’s a lot safer, and we can keep the scale down and the damage less,” he said. “The other thing is multiple people being able to see those images quickly. “We had a recent scenario where there was a fire going to the east of Tumut, but people in Homebush, the RFS centre in Sydney, were able to look at it and make a quick decision and be comfortable about sending that big aircraft down to water bomb the area. “Being able to share that information among a lot of people is critical.”

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Advisors to US$200 Million Domain Timber Advisors (DTA) announced the Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation, manager of the New Zealand Superannuation Fund (NZ Super Fund), has made an additional US$50 million commitment to its value-added US timberland separately managed account with DTA. The additional commitment brings total committed capital under the mandate to US$200 million. Source: Timberbiz The organizations established the mandate in 2023 through NZ Super Fund’s initial US$150 million commitment. DTA has since fully deployed that capital across a diversified portfolio of US timberland investments. The additional capital will give DTA greater flexibility to pursue acquisitions that complement the existing holdings and capitalize on value-creation opportunities across existing and future investments. “DTA has been a valued partner in developing this portfolio,” said Pete White, Portfolio Manager, Real Assets at NZ Super Fund. “The additional commitment will support the continued execution of the mandate, including both selective additions to the portfolio and value-creation opportunities across the holdings, and reflects our shared long-term approach to investing in timberland.” DTA’s value-added strategy focuses on sourcing non-industrial, fragmented or undermanaged timberland where active management can create economic and environmental value. The approach combines disciplined forestry, certification and stewardship, property improvements, aggregation, and selective land-use opportunities to improve individual assets and assemble institutional-quality portfolios. “The existing portfolio is well-positioned, reflecting the excellent work Scott Reaves, Managing Director of Domain Timber Advisors, and the broader DTA team have done to assemble high-quality timberland and identify a range of property-level opportunities across the holdings,” said John Capriotti, Managing Director and Co-Head of Domain Timber Advisors. “This additional capital gives us greater flexibility to pursue acquisitions that complement the portfolio and to capitalize on value-creation opportunities across both existing and future investments. That includes disciplined forestry and property improvements, aggregation opportunities and selective land-use initiatives that can enhance long-term value. We look forward to continuing to build on the strong foundation already in place.” The New Zealand Superannuation Fund is a sovereign wealth fund established by the New Zealand Government to partially pre-fund the future cost of universal superannuation and reduce the burden on future taxpayers. A long-term, growth-oriented global investor, the Fund is managed by the Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation, an autonomous Crown entity.

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Sales of new homes declined for a fourth consecutive month to their lowest level in more than a year, ensuring that a housing market slowdown is now set to occur in 2027. The HIA New Home Sales report is a monthly survey of the largest volume home builders in the five largest states and is a leading indicator of future detached home construction. “The new home market cannot absorb further interest rate increases on top of the tax increases announced in this year’s Federal Budget,” HIA Chief Economist Tim Reardon said. “Sales of new homes fell nationally by 10.0% in the month of August to be 19.3% lower in the three months to August than the previous quarter and 7.7% lower than at the same time last year.” Mr Reardon said that there was a tangible and significant deterioration in market conditions and confirmed that the recovery in new home building that was underway at the start of the year, had been interrupted. “The deterioration is also broad based. All five states included in the survey recorded a decline in sales over the three months to August,” he said. The tax increases announced in the Federal Budget had weakened market confidence at the same time that three interest rate increases had reduced household borrowing capacity and increased mortgage repayments. Mr Reardon said that falling established home prices and rising construction costs were outcomes from the rise in taxes and interest rates and were making new home projects increasingly difficult to finance. “It is not possible to isolate precisely how much of the deterioration in new home sales is attributable to higher interest rates, increased taxation or broader economic uncertainty,” he said. “What is clear is their combined effect. “Investors and households are retreating from the new home market and the pipeline of homes progressing towards construction is contracting. “Builders are also reporting weaker traffic through display sites, fewer enquiries and declining preliminary commitments, while cancellation rates are rising.” Mr Reardon said that there was a substantial volume of work in the pipeline when these pressures emerged, which meant the deterioration in sales would not be immediately evident in housing commencements and was unlikely to adversely impact commencements of new homes in 2026. “But today’s new home sales are tomorrow’s housing commencements,” he said. “The decline in sales through the middle of 2026 will mean fewer homes commencing construction in 2027. “This slowdown will occur without a corresponding reduction in Australia’s underlying need for housing. Population growth, low unemployment and the existing shortage of homes will continue to generate demand for additional housing supply. “Further interest rate increases would add another constraint to a new home market that is already challenged and the full impact of the rising taxes and rates is still to unfold. “This is not the time for another rate rise,” Mr Reardon said. In the three months to August 2026, sales declined compared with the previous quarter in all the mainland states, led by Victoria (-27.0%) and followed by Queensland (-20.2%), New South Wales (-17.5%), South Australia (-10.8%) and Western Australia (-8.2%).  

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The Precinct’s project team in the Green Triangle will be providing an online Precinct Industry Briefing Webinar on 15 October 2026. Source: Timberbiz The webinar will take attendees through the latest planning, the likely product mix, and provide insight into the manufacturing systems and technology required to establish advanced engineered wood product manufacturing, at world scale, in the heart of the plantation resource. There will be up-to-date market intelligence and information on how global scale plantations and world leading technology are coming together to shape The Precinct’s delivery of sustainable timber-based building products for Australia. The webinar will be hosted by Russ Hughes, Chair of The Precinct and former CEO of Australian Bluegum Plantations Pty Ltd. Head of The Precinct, Tim Woods, will unpack the linkages between plantations, engineered wood products, the future of prefabrication and the pathway to commercialisation. Rounding off the session Raute Corporation’s international engineered wood products specialist Roumiana Vassileva will outline the technology and automation required to scale LVL and other engineered wood products. If you’re part of the forestry, manufacturing, construction, housing or government sectors, this briefing will help you understand how The Precinct could reshape Australia’s timber-based housing value chain, from plantation to product to prefabrication. The webinar will run from 3pm to 4pm. Register at https://events.humanitix.com/the-precinct-industry-briefing-webinar

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The full Senate Hansard from the 10 September debate on the Improved Native Forest Management carbon method has reinforced Forest & Wood Communities Australia’s concerns that political support for the scheme is being confused with evidence that its carbon accounting is sound. Source: Timberbiz Forest & Wood Communities Australia (FWCA) Chair Steve Dobbyns said the debate revealed several new issues warranting scrutiny as the Emissions Reduction Assurance Committee considers FWCA’s request for a statutory review of the Method under section 255AA of the Carbon Credits Act. “The Senate has voted and the Method remains in force. We are not seeking to re-run that debate,” Mr Dobbyns said. “What the Hansard now allows us to examine is the reasoning senators were given for supporting the Method, and some of that reasoning raises more questions than it answers.” During the debate Senator David Pocock told the Senate that credits were only paid where logging “stops altogether”. Mr Dobbyns said that description was incomplete. “Logging must cease within a designated carbon protection area, but that does not mean harvesting necessarily ceases across the entire INFM project area,” he said. “The Method expressly contemplates carbon protection areas forming only part of the wider forestry project area. “That distinction matters because the Method’s baseline, harvesting assumptions, leakage calculations and ultimately the number of ACCUs generated are based on a much more complicated project architecture than the simple proposition presented in the Senate. “If parliamentarians are being asked to judge the integrity of a carbon method, they need to understand how the Method actually works.” If 30% strengthens integrity, why wait until 2030? The debate also confirmed that the Government has asked ERAC to consider increasing the minimum carbon protection area requirement from 20% to 30%. However, the proposed higher threshold would apply only to projects registered from 1 July 2030. “That creates a new and very obvious integrity question,” Mr Dobbyns said. “If 30% provides greater confidence in the integrity of these projects, why is 20% considered sufficient for projects registered between now and July 2030? “Carbon integrity should not depend on what date a project happens to be registered. “If a stronger safeguard is justified, the Government should explain why it should not apply before the first generation of projects is locked in.” Mr Dobbyns said much of the Senate debate relied on endorsements from environmental organisations and selected academics as evidence that the Method was sound. “That is not the same thing as demonstrating compliance with the statutory Offsets Integrity Standards,” he said. “An organisation can strongly support ending native forest harvesting and still not have tested whether the resulting carbon credits accurately represent additional, measurable and conservatively calculated abatement. “The questions FWCA has raised are about carbon accounting, not whether particular groups support or oppose native forestry.” FWCA said the Hansard contained no substantive answer to the key technical matters already placed before ERAC, including the Method’s 40% ceiling on indirect leakage, the treatment of a pre-existing government commitment such as the Great Koala National Park, and whether the modelling and counterfactual are sufficiently conservative to avoid over-crediting. “These issues were already set out in our statutory review request and do not need to be relitigated through press releases,” Mr Dobbyns said. “But what is significant is that, despite being central to the integrity of the credits, they were effectively unanswered during the Senate debate.” Additionality concerns cross the political divide Mr Dobbyns said it was also notable that concerns about additionality were not confined to forestry representatives or senators opposing the Method. Greens Senator Nick McKim questioned the broader logic of paying for forest protection that governments have historically been able to deliver through ordinary policy and reservation decisions. “That comes at the issue from a very different political perspective to FWCA, but it points to the same underlying carbon-accounting question,” Mr Dobbyns said. “Would the claimed abatement actually have occurred without the carbon project? “That is particularly important where a government publicly committed to establishing a reserve before the carbon methodology under which it proposes to claim credits even existed.” FWCA has already asked ERAC to review whether the INFM Method continues to satisfy the Offsets Integrity Standards and to consider interim measures while that review is undertaken. “The Senate vote should not be treated as a technical validation of the Method,” Mr Dobbyns said. “It was a political decision about whether to disallow a legislative instrument. “The appropriate next step is now much more straightforward: answer the technical questions. “What is the evidentiary basis for the 40% leakage ceiling? How has additionality been demonstrated? How conservative are the baseline and modelling assumptions? And why is an integrity safeguard considered necessary from 2030 but apparently unnecessary beforehand? “If the Method is robust, transparent examination of those questions should confirm it. “If it isn’t, the problems should be corrected before they become embedded in projects and millions of dollars’ worth of ACCUs.”

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The Australian Government is investing $5 million from 2026–27 through the Forestry Growth Fund to support implementation of two illegal logging law reforms: the new notification requirement and the use of timber testing technologies to verify species and origin claims. Source: Timberbiz These reforms are provided for in the legislation but are not yet in effect. The funding will help the department establish a digital notification system for importers and processors to provide required due diligence information before importing regulated timber products or processing raw logs. Earlier access to this information will support more timely risk assessment and targeted compliance activities. The funding will also support the integration of timber testing technologies within the department’s compliance operations. These technologies will help the department to verify claims about the species and origin of regulated timber products where appropriate, supporting a consistent, evidence-based approach to implementing Australia’s illegal logging laws. This work will be delivered progressively over several years. The government will keep stakeholders informed as the digital system and timber testing capability are developed, including through future updates and consultation on implementation and transition arrangements.  

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