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Experts from FAO and partners have successfully pioneered new methods for estimating wood fuel removals and wood charcoal production. Source: Timberbiz While estimates of wood fuel removals and charcoal production are essential for tracking global goals including the Sustainable Development Goals, many countries still have difficulty producing reliable data due to the complexities of measuring informal markets and direct household collection of wood fuels. However, the new machine-learning approach enhances the estimation process by building on officially submitted statistics and also information from government websites, household consumption surveys conducted by international organizations, and published research. Results of the new methods published in Nature Communications suggest an additional 30 percent of wood fuel removals than indicated by previous estimates last made in 2005. These estimates – which include not only stems of harvested trees but also branches harvested and dead wood collected would mean that wood fuel removals account for more than half of the wood removed from forests and trees outside of forests globally. The research also presents new values for wood charcoal production, estimated at 50 percent higher than previously understood. “Such revisions are part of FAO’s process of constant improvement and innovation in statistical methods,” said FAO Forestry Officer Ashley Steel, one of the paper’s authors. “Wood fuel is a critical element of food security through its use for cooking and water sterilization by many of the most vulnerable, and a clear understanding of how much is produced is vital for addressing issues related to human health, food security, energy availability and sustainable development.” For 2019, the report estimates there were 2525.7 million m3 of wood fuel removals globally. These removals were estimated to be 50% higher in Africa and 40% higher in Asia than previously thought, as well as 10% lower in the Americas and 20% lower in Europe. Global production of wood charcoal was estimated at 70.5 million tonnes, with estimates 20% higher in Africa and 200% higher in Asia. The study could not determine reasons why new estimates are different from those of previous models, but reasons may include differences in actual versus forecast human population growth or urbanization rates, better incorporation of informal and undocumented production by using a consumption-based approach, changes in average household size, and the transition away from wood fuel toward charcoal and eventually towards clean energy. With this new methodology, FAO is now better positioned to support countries in submitting data on wood fuel removals or wood charcoal production. As this new approach provides more information and refined estimates, it can also be used to revise the data backward and create future estimates. “This approach is a big step forward, but estimates are in a constant state of revision, incorporating new statistical methods and new data every few years. The puzzle of understanding where the wood comes from, separating, for example, wood from forests and wood from trees outside of forests or wood from tree trunks versus wood from fallen branches, remains for the next iteration of modelling and estimation to tackle,” said Steel. The research on “Global wood fuel production estimates and implications” was conducted by experts from FAO, the University of Glasgow, the University of Göttingen, Sapienza University of Rome, EP Consulting, the Thünen Institute of Forestry, Tall Forester Trees, the International Renewable Energy Agency, the Stockholm Environment Institute, the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, and the United Nations Statistics Division.

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